# Quantile Regression: Demographics Across the CA/GDP Distribution

## Panel A: Base Model

| Variable | τ=0.05 | τ=0.10 | τ=0.25 | τ=0.50 | τ=0.75 | τ=0.90 | τ=0.95 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 30.2362 | 27.2691** | 26.5464*** | 8.6704** | 2.5463 | -12.7755 | -40.7579*** |
| | (19.4374) | (12.8101) | (5.5934) | (3.5493) | (4.3790) | (7.8851) | (14.1472) |
| Z_2 | -5.8561** | -4.7673** | -3.9512*** | -0.9311* | 0.1417 | 2.5557** | 6.4653*** |
| | (2.9623) | (1.9355) | (0.8394) | (0.5318) | (0.6579) | (1.2045) | (2.1931) |
| Z_3 | 0.2864** | 0.2201*** | 0.1631*** | 0.0301 | -0.0192 | -0.1231** | -0.2763*** |
| | (0.1215) | (0.0788) | (0.0340) | (0.0216) | (0.0267) | (0.0496) | (0.0912) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.6305*** | 0.5629*** | 0.5412*** | 0.5441*** | 0.6005*** | 0.6735*** | 0.6341*** |
| | (0.0859) | (0.0549) | (0.0244) | (0.0151) | (0.0205) | (0.0414) | (0.0747) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.7296 | 1.1850*** | 2.2129*** | 3.0783*** | 3.6796*** | 3.9811*** | 4.5875*** |
| | (0.5240) | (0.3334) | (0.1211) | (0.0631) | (0.0784) | (0.1716) | (0.3602) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.2286*** | -0.1390** | -0.1068*** | -0.0772*** | -0.0674*** | -0.0402 | 0.0148 |
| | (0.0841) | (0.0565) | (0.0242) | (0.0137) | (0.0179) | (0.0367) | (0.0698) |

*N = 5939. Pooled quantile regression (Koenker & Bassett).*

## Panel B: With KAOPEN Interactions

| Variable | τ=0.05 | τ=0.10 | τ=0.25 | τ=0.50 | τ=0.75 | τ=0.90 | τ=0.95 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -13.2268 | -6.8899 | 6.3905 | 0.0255 | -4.1295 | -6.0999 | -30.9124** |
| | (19.8672) | (13.7720) | (6.0116) | (3.8214) | (4.8372) | (7.5220) | (12.1658) |
| Z_2 | 1.4879 | 1.1303 | -0.5075 | 0.6838 | 1.5057** | 2.0524* | 6.0491*** |
| | (2.9867) | (2.0821) | (0.9169) | (0.5823) | (0.7365) | (1.1463) | (1.8512) |
| Z_3 | -0.0350 | -0.0425 | 0.0097 | -0.0459* | -0.0863*** | -0.1170** | -0.2894*** |
| | (0.1217) | (0.0852) | (0.0378) | (0.0240) | (0.0304) | (0.0472) | (0.0763) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.5906*** | 0.5769*** | 0.5706*** | 0.5515*** | 0.6179*** | 0.7058*** | 0.7559*** |
| | (0.1039) | (0.0681) | (0.0267) | (0.0165) | (0.0229) | (0.0392) | (0.0694) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.9322 | 1.1696** | 1.8907*** | 2.7444*** | 2.6833*** | 2.3158*** | 2.3810*** |
| | (0.7958) | (0.4847) | (0.1605) | (0.0770) | (0.0845) | (0.1390) | (0.2766) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.2113** | -0.1544*** | -0.1326*** | -0.0874*** | -0.0813*** | -0.0674** | -0.0688 |
| | (0.0930) | (0.0540) | (0.0256) | (0.0141) | (0.0181) | (0.0295) | (0.0586) |
| kaopen | 0.4465 | 0.7821*** | 0.5715*** | 0.4828*** | 0.6373*** | 0.4616*** | 0.4558 |
| | (0.3839) | (0.2901) | (0.1469) | (0.0998) | (0.1202) | (0.1780) | (0.2854) |
| Z_1_x_kaopen | -13.3875 | 6.1555 | 8.7496** | 8.9411*** | 6.6121** | 5.1073 | 4.6454 |
| | (12.7552) | (8.8865) | (3.8446) | (2.4739) | (3.1170) | (5.1856) | (9.2617) |
| Z_2_x_kaopen | 1.4790 | -1.2184 | -1.5639*** | -1.4890*** | -1.0789** | -0.8308 | -1.0730 |
| | (1.9342) | (1.3499) | (0.5832) | (0.3739) | (0.4714) | (0.7906) | (1.4225) |
| Z_3_x_kaopen | -0.0416 | 0.0605 | 0.0718*** | 0.0656*** | 0.0476** | 0.0363 | 0.0545 |
| | (0.0791) | (0.0552) | (0.0239) | (0.0153) | (0.0193) | (0.0325) | (0.0588) |

*N = 5342. Pooled quantile regression with Z×KAOPEN interactions.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*